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Staff editors attended some of the myriad Asia-related talks at Harvard. Their summaries include presentations by Gary Crawford, Douglas Paal, Cao Siyuan, Lu Mai, Boris Nemtsov and Ambassador Sato Yoshiyasu.
Japanese Ambassador Sato Yoshiyasu: "Japan-China Relations" Michael Forsythe Ambassador Sato's remarks to the Asia Center on February 5 began with a reminiscence of his long career as a diplomat both in the United States and China. In the late 1960s a Washington-based Japanese diplomat's worst nightmare was to wake up in the morning, "read the paper and realize that Washington-Beijing relations had been normalized." At the twilight of his illustrious career, he felt confident enough to note that the shift in China's international position is a "change for a better world." Sato served as Japan's ambassador to China from March 1995 to May 1998, a period which saw the end of the Deng Xiaoping era, the evolution of China's ties with Russia, and the return of Hong Kong to Chinese rule. Discussing Sino-Japanese relations, Sato noted that the bilateral relationship was entering a "very challenging period" at century's end, necessitating an "innovative approach" to the Sino-US-Japanese trilateral relationship. Sato went out of his way to emphasize the 1996 Clinton-Hashimoto joint declaration on US-Japanese security relations, highlighting the intention of both Tokyo and Washington to "secure China's cooperation." Speaking on the sensitive subject of Chinese president Jiang Zemin's November 1998 Japan visit, Sato described the US press coverage, which depicted the summit as an overall failure as "not quite accurate." He emphasized the progress made between Beijing and Tokyo, predicting that the joint document signed by Obuchi and Jiang would become a pillar of the Sino-Japanese relationship. In contrast to Western reports, Sato noted that the two leaders found the exchange "very positive and very productive." He went on to list a number of deliverables which came out of the summit, ranging from yen-denominated loans to China to environmental protection agreements. Sato detailed the complexity of the "triangular relationship" between Japan, the United States and China, in particular highlighting Japan's pivotal role. While foundation of Japan's foreign relations rests on its alliance with the United States, he stressed that Japan also has a treaty of friendship with the PRC - a fact which the US must be sensitive to. Ending on a highly optimistic note, Sato observed that China was "now recognizing the value of globalization," a mindset that will likely improve Sino-Japanese relations and will also be a boon to US foreign policy. 
Professors Lucian Pye, Elizabeth Perry, Leo Ou-fan Lee, Roderick MacFarquhar and William Kirby at the Harvard Asia Quarterly's "May Fourth to June Fourth" panel discussion. Professor MacFarquhar moderated the extremely well-attended event, which took place at the Kennedy School of Government on the evening of May Fourth.
Gary Crawford: "Ainu Ancestors and Ancient Northern Agriculture" Yungti Li The East Asian Archaeology Society was honored to receive Professor Gary Crawford of the University of Toronto at Mississauga in April 16, for his presentation on "Ainu Ancestors and Ancient Northern Agriculture." Professor Crawford is one of the few western archaeologists actively involved in the study of the rise of agriculture in East Asia, and his research interest has recently extended to China. According to Professor Crawford, "from time to time archaeology helps rewrite long held beliefs about history. One such rewrite relates to Ainu history in southern and central Hokkaido, Japan. The implications are not trivial because Ainu history is very much part of understanding the origins of the Japanese. Scholars working in the region have long believed that the Ainu and their ancestors (Satsumon or Ezo-Haji peoples) were not agricultural. However, over the last 25 years, cooperative research between Canadian, American and Japanese archaeologists has helped reassess the relationship between plants and people in Hokkaido through time." The main conclusion of Professor Crawford's informative presentation was his assertion that Ainu ancestors were agricultural, likely originating in the Tohoku Yayoi area of the Hokkaido Kameda Peninsula. Furthermore, "Tohoku may not have been the only source of crops. The extent to which the Primorye area of Russia contributed to this northern agricultural complex needs to be carefully explored. This northern crop complex has plants whose origins are as far afield as the Near East, North China, South China, and elsewhere. Unraveling the history of the crops found in early Hokkaido will help unravel human history elsewhere in Asia. For now, the archaeology of Hokkaido agricultural development, particularly from a palaeoethnobotanical perspective, is better known than anywhere else in north Asia." If you would like to know more about Prof. Crawford's work and the archaeology program at his department, check out his web site. Boris Nemtsov: "Russian-Japanese Relations" Michael Forsythe 1. The Hashimoto-Yeltsin Talks Former Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Boris Nemtsov reviewed the last eighteen months of Sino-Russian relations in his 16 February discussion. He began his presentation with a review of the talks between Russian President Boris Yeltsin and former Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto which took place in November 1997 in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk. Nemtsov noted that the Yeltsin-Hashimoto plan for cultural and economic development called for protection of Japanese investments in Russia, for expanded training and management programs and also saw the appointment of Ms. Hakamata, a Russian of Japanese descent to head the Russian small business development program. As for the prospects of a peace treaty between the two powers, Nemstov noted that the two leaders had had a frank discussion on the subject. He predicted that one would be signed before the June 2000 presidential elections in Russia. 2. The Kurile Islands The 1993 Tokyo Declaration had seen an acknowledgment of the border problems from both parties. A follow-up meeting in the spring of 1998 saw a Japanese proposal that the four disputed islands in the Kurile Chain be returned to Japan, but that the Russians continue to operate in the area for several years. Progress in negotiations were hampered by the firing of the Kiriyenko government in August 1998. Nemstov suggests that the Kurile Island problem is a legal one. A change in the boundaries of the Russian state requires a change in the constitution, which requires the permission of the State Duma. Russian pubic opinion is against the handover of the islands. The finesse this problem, Nemstov suggested that Russia lease the islands to Japan. Such an action would not be unprecedented the US "purchase" of Alaska in 1867 was actually a 100 year lease. This idea was not discussed between Yeltsin and Hashimoto, and the Kurile talks are now in jeopardy. Despite Russian public opinion, the political bargaining room on this issue is quite ample, as evidenced by the fact that even Russian nationalist Vladimir Zhironovsky is willing to discuss the Kurile Islands issue. As for the Communist Party, Gennady Zyugonov and Luzhkov continue to voice anger over the issue, but the fact that they supported the ceding of land to Ukraine as part of the Crimea settlement is evidence of the flexibility of the Communists toward territorial issues. Nemtsov noted that more liberal parties such as Yabloko are ready to bargain. Centrist Chernomydrin's Our Home is Russia party is also prepared to negotiate. The new Prime Minister, Primakov, was a former Foreign Minister. As such, Nemstov posited that Primakov feels that he is "in charge" on this issue. Summarizing the economic relations between the two neighbors, Nemstov noted that Japanese investment in Russia totaled US$230 million, a "pathetically low" figure. He proposed that Russian public opinion could be tilted toward Japan if more Japanese goods such as automobiles were visible on Russian streets. The residents of the Kurile Islands, beset by low living standards and high unemployment, would certainly benefit from closer relations with Japan. 3. Sino-Russian Relations Mr. Nemtsov discussed two major points with regards to Sino-Russian relations. First, he observed that there were at present no political problems between the two countries. A potential danger area concerned the problem of illegal Chinese immigration into Siberia. The population of Siberia totals approximately 20 million people, who live next to a much greater Chinese population in Northeastern China. At present, he estimated that there are approximately one million illegal Chinese immigrants in Siberia. Secondly, Nemtsov noted that the huge potential for an immensely rewarding economic relationship between the two powers. Russia, blessed with abundant energy resources, could build a pipeline from Siberia to China to help satisfy China's growing need for energy imports. The problem: the current weak international oil market makes financing such a project problematic. Russian electricity exports to China constitute another possible new market. As for Russian weapons exports to China, Nemtsov noted that the do indeed "exist" but that the Russian government would never send "something wrong" to China. Russia will abide by its international obligations and doesn't expect that this will be a problem in the future either. 
Mr. Lobsang Sangay and Professor Merle Goldman rounded out the panel. The panelists traced the links and discontinuities between the various "anniversaries," including the May Fourth Incident, the founding of the PRC, the 1959 Tibet incursion, the 1979 Democracy Wall Movement and the June 4th, 1989 Tiananmen Square Incident. Lively intra-panel discussion was accompanied by many questions from the huge audience. Douglas Paal: "Political, Economic and Strategic Trends in East Asia" Michael Forsythe Mr. Douglas Paal, President of the Asia Pacific Policy Center, presented a thorough, wide-ranging and insightful overview of East Asia's political, economic and strategic developments in his 5 March presentation. His underlying message was one of optimism, albeit tempered by cautionary notes on all three fronts. In his analysis of the political situation, Mr. Paal noted that in Korea and Thailand, the economic crisis allowed new political leaders Kim Dae Jung and Chuan Leepkai respectively to blame their predecessors for their economic woes and forge a strong reformist consensus. As a result, those two countries have made great progress in their efforts to recover from the downturn. The established means of political succession was a key factor in these two countries' reform efforts, and Mr. Paal also pointed to the Philippines as another example of a country with a successful record of peaceful political transition. In contrast, Burma, Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos, while they were not as deeply affected by the economic crisis, did not have the political means to take advantage of any opportunities that the crisis presented. To Paal, Indonesia and Malaysia presented much more complicated cases. Indonesia, still mired in political turmoil, was experiencing increasing ethnic strife. Paal cited the cases of the Christian-Muslim discord over Ambon Island and the East Timor situation as examples. Nevertheless, the June elections could resolve some political questions. Malaysia, which has not experienced the economic and political turmoil of its large southern neighbor, is still faced with serious difficulties. The sacking of Deputy Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has apparently left the ruling party, UMNO, "deeply divided," and Prime Minister Mahathir has named a much less dynamic successor. Like in Korea and Thailand, Japan's politicians were also acquiring the means to implement reform-minded policies. Paal pointed to the emergence of the Liberal-LDP coalition, and the recent passage of the US$500 billion stimulus package as evidence that the government is serious about utilizing both traditional and non-traditional means to reform the banking sector and stimulate the economy. Calling Chinese President Jiang Zemin the "Chinese Communist equivalent of a poll-driven politician," Mr. Paal noted that Jiang and Premier Zhu Rongji faced the difficult task of balancing economic reform with maintaining domestic tranquility, a task made especially difficult with the recent economic slowdown and the tenth anniversary of the June 4th Incident. While Premier Zhu will undoubtedly face tough questions about China's recent crackdown on independent political parties, the level of violence the regime has employed has been relatively low. A key test could come if a political group boldly challenges the regime and dares it to use violence to quell protests a scenario Paal views as unlikely but possible. 
Economics Mr. Paal noted that in Indonesia, the many fine technocrats have managed to begin the process of reforming the economic institutions. The rupiah has recovered somewhat and the country has been able to initiate some reflationary policies with IMF guidance. Of note, Mr. Paal praised the support of the Japanese in providing loan guarantees to Indonesian exporters. Malaysia experienced a "departure from reality" with its decision to impose capital controls, and it is unclear whether this measure, which has had some salutary effects, will eventually plunge the country into economic turmoil. Like many countries in Asia, the Koreans face a serious overcapacity problem, and President Kim, a former labor leader, confronts the difficult task of downsizing many vanguard industries. China's growth has slowed, but it has thus far escaped the worst of the economic crisis. Mr. Paal noted that the Chinese were "compulsive savers," which has allowed the government to continue to pump money into insolvent state-owned enterprises. Eventually the Chinese will have to deal with this nonperforming debt problem, but unless the average Chinese are given another, more attractive, alternative to putting their money in banks, the country should be able to stumble along with positive albeit reduced economic growth. Paal saved his most fascinating remarks on the economic situation for his analysis of Japan. Paal presented the intriguing proposition that Japan will soon be compelled to abandon its policy of trying to stimulate the economy through the traditional Keynesian means of fiscal stimulus. He cited a study which observed that the Keynesian multiplier had a negative effect in Japan $0.95 for every dollar invested! Paal opined that the government could soon embark on a policy of inflating the currency, which would result in a sharply devalued yen but could serve to wipe out debt. He cited the US post-WWII experience as an example of a successful reflationary policy. Strategic Concerns Mr. Paal noted that many geostrategic developments are actually bringing China and the US closer. He cited China's increasing dependence on imported Persian Gulf oil as an example of the congruence of US and Chinese interests. Similarly, the two countries have a common interest in seeing a peaceful resolution to the situation in North Korea. Paal noted that the Theater Missile Defense (TMD) issue between Taiwan, China and the US was being exacerbated by an increasingly anti-Chinese US Congress. Second, he observed that Japan's recent review of its defense guidelines, including issues such as Japanese arms exports and the role of the Self Defense Forces could cause regional apprehension. Third, the issue of North Korea loomed large on the radar screens of Washington Policymakers. Paal observed that the US had the choice of continuing to deal with the North Koreans through continued negotiations and through organizations such as KEDO (Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization) or the US could take a tougher stance toward the Pyongyang regime. Despite the many potential pitfalls, Paal returned to his original theme in his closing remarks, noting that: "I think the broad picture in East Asia economically and politically is one that is healthier than we had any reason to expect in the middle of 1997." Cao Siyan: "Chinese Constitutional Revisions and Social Change" Victor Shih Mr. Cao's May 13th remarks centered on the legal and political implications of the explosion of the private sector in China. First, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) now recognizes the private sector as "socialist." Second, he thinks that the Chinese Communist party should change its name to the Chinese Socialist party, because it would assure private entrepreneurs that party policies with respect to the private sector would not reverse. To further guarantee the property rights of entrepreneurs and human rights of citizens, Mr. Cao suggests several measures of constitutional changes. First, he points out the importance of oversight and enforcement mechanisms to prevent arbitrary government intervention. Second, he feels that the constitution should explicitly state the principle of the sovereignty of the people to prevent despotism. Third, he feels that the presumption of innocence for crime suspects should be embedded in the constitution because the current assumption of guilt holds all Chinese citizens hostages. In terms of the legal process, he argues that openness of policy debates in the National People's Congress should be legalized in order for the people to keep track of and participate in policy debates. Finally, Mr. Cao argues that constitutional reform must be carried out along with political reform, but both reforms are likely to be incremental. Lu Mai: "The Provision of Public Goods and Village Democracy in China" Victor Shih Lu Mai, a member of the PRC's State Council, argues that the under-provision of public goods in rural China necessitates the institutionalization of rural democracy. Currently, public goods, including roads, irrigation, public security, and education, are under provided in many localities. This stems from lack of accountability and distrust. First, because local officials are not responsible to villagers, they tend to abuse their power and misuse funds. Knowing this, villagers shirk taxes, causing a shortage of funds for public goods. Local democracy, however, can make local officials accountable to villagers' demand. With local democracy, villagers know that they can punish local officials should they abuse their power. This also makes villagers more willing to pay taxes. In sum, local elections solve both the problem of dishonesty and the problem of distrust, increasing the amount of funds available for rural public goods. 
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